On Monday, 7 April 2025, a struggling Leicester City host a resurgent Newcastle United at King Power Stadium. With the Foxes languishing in 19th place on just 17 points and the Magpies eyeing a top‐four finish, this match is about survival and ambition.
The Broader Picture
Leicester City’s season has taken a dramatic downturn. Once celebrated for their famous title win in 2016, the Foxes now face a harsh reality. Their inability to score at home is alarming: they have gone seven consecutive league matches at King Power without finding the net—a dubious record no other Premier League side has managed before. In 30 league outings this season, Leicester have managed only four wins.
Conversely, Newcastle United have re-emerged as a force under Eddie Howe. Currently sitting seventh on 50 points from 29 matches, the Magpies are on the cusp of a Champions League return. A win at Leicester could push them further up the table—potentially into fourth—while a loss would cast a long shadow over their ambitious season. Newcastle’s recent form, bolstered by a Carabao Cup triumph and a 2-1 win over Brentford, has injected a new sense of purpose and belief into the squad.
Team Form and Key Statistics
Leicester City: A Team in Crisis
The Foxes’ record this season is a bitter pill to swallow. With only 4 wins, 11 draws, and 21 losses in the league, their points tally is a clear indicator of their struggles. Their home record is especially dismal.
Conceding an average of 2.23 goals per game, their backline has been overrun time and again.
Despite the presence of experienced forward Jamie Vardy—who has chipped in with 7 league goals—and emerging talents like Patson Daka, the Foxes have only managed to score in one of their last 10 matches.
Van Nistelrooy’s midfield, anchored by Wilfred Ndidi (who has registered 4 assists this season), struggles to link defense with attack, while wide players like Boubakary Soumaré and substitute Jordan Ayew have yet to spark the creative flair needed to break down opposing defenses.
Other names in the Leicester squad include veteran James Justin, who has been a steady presence at the back, and young defenders like Caleb Okoli and Luke Thomas, who are fighting for regular starts. However, the Foxes’ overall lack of scoring options remains their Achilles’ heel.
Newcastle United: Momentum on the Rise
Newcastle, on the other hand, boast statistics that paint a picture of a side on an upward trajectory:
Alexander Isak leads the line with 20 league goals, making him one of the most lethal forwards in the division. His pace and finishing have earned him comparisons with legends, and he is poised to extend his record of scoring in consecutive Premier League games.
Midfield maestro Bruno Guimarães has been a revelation, contributing 6 assists in 29 appearances, while Sandro Tonali’s ability to control the tempo has been instrumental.
Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes, who operate on the wings, have been vital in stretching opposing defenses. Murphy, in particular, has recorded 9 assists this season, while Barnes has been credited with his direct goal threat and work rate.
Although Newcastle have faced minor injury issues—defenders Jamaal Lascelles and Sven Botman remain sidelined with knee concerns—they have adapted by fielding experienced campaigners like Kieran Trippier and Fabian Schär. Trippier, renowned for his precise crossing and leadership, is a constant threat on set-pieces, while Schär’s aerial ability has been a key factor in Newcastle’s improved defensive record.
Howe is confident in his squad’s depth. “We have quality throughout,” he remarked in his pre-match press conference. “Even if Alexander or Kieran isn’t 100% fit, we have players like Anthony Gordon, who despite a knock while on international duty, have shown their determination in training. Every player in this squad is fighting for a spot.”
Head-to-Head: Historical and Recent Trends
The rivalry between Leicester City and Newcastle United is steeped in history. In their 135 meetings across all competitions, Newcastle have edged Leicester 58 to 49 wins, with 28 draws. However, the narrative in recent years has been more one-sided:
In the last five league meetings, Newcastle have recorded four victories and one draw, including a 4-0 thrashing at St. James’ Park in December 2024.
Notably, in their previous encounters, both teams have been consistent with penalty conversions—Leicester converting three out of four and Newcastle with one—the data hinting at the meticulous nature of set-piece routines in this fixture.
Historical trends suggest that Newcastle are bolstered by a recent dominance over the Foxes, both in terms of results and momentum.
Tactical Breakdown
Leicester City’s Game Plan
Ruud van Nistelrooy’s side will likely persist with a defensive-minded 4-3-3, designed to compact the space and frustrate Newcastle’s attacking flow.
With Conor Coady and Wout Faes tasked with central defensive duties, and James Justin and Luke Thomas covering the flanks, Leicester must reduce the gaps that Newcastle’s pacey forwards can exploit.
With limited creativity in open play, van Nistelrooy might look to exploit any set-piece opportunities. However, Newcastle’s disciplined organization, led by Kieran Trippier’s delivery, has often nullified such efforts in past meetings.
Van Nistelrooy remains realistic:
“We’ve been struggling to create clear opportunities. It’s frustrating when you have players like Jamie Vardy and Patson Daka who can change a game, but we’re just not converting chances.”
Newcastle United’s Approach
Eddie Howe’s Newcastle will maintain their fluid 4-3-3 formation, built on high pressing and quick transitions.
Leicester’s porous defense, especially on set-pieces and counter-attacks, will be a target. With their aerial duel win rate among Newcastle players, such as Dan Burn (with 105 aerial duels won) and the consistent threat from Trippier’s overlaps, Newcastle’s full-backs are expected to cause significant problems.
Eddie Howe summed up his thoughts in his pre-match briefing:
“We know they are dangerous. We know they have good players. We are going to have to be on our guard. There are no easy games in this league. We have to respect Leicester City and go there with the right attitude.”
He continued, emphasizing his squad’s readiness despite minor niggles:
“We are monitoring Anthony Gordon, who is still recovering from a knock sustained on international duty. We expect him to return soon, and his energy on the wing is vital for us. Harvey Barnes has been champing at the bit to play, and his creativity is exactly what we need on the left.”
Howe’s confidence in his side is further buoyed by news of Fabian Schär’s contract extension, a sign that the club is committed to maintaining its defensive core.
Predictions
The betting markets have overwhelmingly favored Newcastle United. With the Geordies averaging 1.53 goals per match on the road and a consistent defensive record, they are well-equipped to exploit Leicester’s vulnerabilities.
For punters, one attractive bet is on an anytime goal from Alexander Isak, whose 20-goal tally and record of consecutive scoring appearances make him almost a certainty.
Additionally, bets on Newcastle to win and to keep a clean sheet appear highly favorable given Leicester’s defensive frailties.
