Matheus Cunha Rising as a Hot FPL Pick – Can He Outshine Raul Jimenez?

Wolves were dealt a tough hand when it came to their opening run of fixtures- they faced 4 of the traditional big six in their first 9 games.

Unfortunately for them their start has been poor, they’ve only secured 2 points from these first 9 fixtures.

But looking forward it’s not as treacherous and Gary O’Neil’s men will be hoping to turn the tide and pick some points.

As the fixtures ease, some of Wolves’ forward assets have to come to light as differential picks – Matheus Cunha and Strand Larsen.

Despite Wolves’ tough start, Cunha’s underlying stats have shown real promise. He’s been a key figure in the attack, creating chances and showing flashes of productivity even when results have been hard to come by.

Cunha has 4 goals in a struggling Wolves side, there’s always the chance he could start scoring more if Wolves can start to turn things around.

In his last 3 games Cunha has scored 20 points in his last three games with 2 goals and 6 bonus points. His xFPL of 18.29 suggests his performance is sustainable.  

At 6.6m- thanks to a recent price rise, Cunha at the time of writing has been brought in by 162923 FPL managers, but still remains a differential pick as he’s selected by only 4.3% of all FPL managers.

Another statistic that highlights Cunha’s performance in an underperforming Wolves side is that there only 6 other forwards in the game that have scored more than his 4 goals.

He’s had 27 attempts so far in fixtures against teams like Arsenal, Chelsea, Villa, Man City, Liverpool, Newcastle and Brentford, so maintaining that rate heading into the next run of easier matches should bring him more big chances and more goals.

Cunha vs Jimenez – Who is the better pick

On the face of it, Jimenez slightly edges Cunha when it comes to goal threat. Cunha’s total of 2.42 shots per 90 is lower than Fulham’s Jimenez who stands at 3.35. The same also goes for shots on target.

Even when considering xG/90 and xGI/90 (expected goal involvements) Cunha falls short of Jimenez.

There seem to be two reasons as to why Jimenez has slightly better underlying stats- one, he is part of a more capable Fulham side who have won games and create chances on the regular, and two is that Raul Jimenez starts as the out and out #9 for Fulham whereas Matheus Cunha often starts behind Strand Larsen.

On comparing the two players’ shotmap, its evident as to why Jimenez might be the better asset of the two.

The bulk of Jimenez’s shots have come from inside the box and are very central (understat).

Comparing this with Cunha’s – we see that the Cunha’s shotmap is way more scattered around the box (understat).

While these underlying stats all favour Jimenez it’s important to keep in mind that the end of the day both Cunha and Jimenez have the same number of goals.

With Cunha’s slightly deeper role you’d expect him to have better xA and create more chances all around the pitch, but that isn’t the case.

Jimenez has a better expected assists per 90 and also has 1.26 key passes per game- which eventually lead to high goal scoring chances (FootyStats).

The final comparison can be done on price and ownership. Cunha is priced at 6.6m whereas Jimenez can be considered pocket friendly at 5.7m. Cunha can be considered as a differential pick- with ownership of only 4.3% whereas his Brazilian counterpart we’re comparing him to is owned by 10.7% of FPL managers.

In conclusion, it comes down to your team and it’s needs. If as an FPL manager you feel you could deal with the higher price of Cunha at 6.6m he is fixture proof for multiple weeks. Or if the 0.9m is more important to you then Jimenez offers great value at his budget friendly price.